* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/23/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 73 80 93 97 101 100 101 100 100 99 98 97 101 97 V (KT) LAND 50 57 64 73 80 93 97 101 100 101 100 100 99 98 97 101 97 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 64 72 80 97 106 105 102 100 97 95 94 90 88 86 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 3 5 3 2 5 9 8 5 10 13 15 14 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 2 5 0 0 0 1 -2 -4 -2 -4 2 5 SHEAR DIR 277 203 85 68 85 320 203 263 281 263 241 214 225 234 219 220 204 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 146 149 146 141 144 144 142 142 142 145 146 147 150 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 148 146 148 143 137 137 137 136 136 134 136 137 137 140 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 61 61 58 57 55 54 55 51 51 49 48 49 49 50 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 17 17 19 18 21 22 24 26 27 26 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 1 -3 -11 -25 -34 -25 -26 -23 -20 -24 -34 -29 -21 2 18 200 MB DIV 12 13 23 38 52 49 38 69 53 55 71 24 32 39 75 82 88 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 4 8 3 9 4 7 8 10 LAND (KM) 1530 1426 1325 1248 1181 1095 1026 1003 1012 1047 1019 960 943 834 653 503 456 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.8 15.8 16.9 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.1 40.5 41.9 43.1 44.3 46.1 47.7 49.1 50.2 51.5 53.1 54.7 56.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 20 18 20 23 25 43 49 47 48 35 44 53 53 42 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 10. 5. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 23. 30. 43. 47. 51. 50. 51. 50. 50. 49. 48. 47. 51. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.0 39.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/23/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 9.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 30.1 to 2.3 1.00 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 43.3% 29.4% 20.6% 11.8% 31.8% 41.2% 43.0% Logistic: 16.5% 57.0% 46.5% 27.3% 13.8% 36.1% 33.6% 25.9% Bayesian: 14.9% 66.3% 32.0% 3.2% 4.8% 24.4% 17.8% 2.6% Consensus: 15.0% 55.6% 36.0% 17.0% 10.1% 30.7% 30.8% 23.8% DTOPS: 18.0% 64.0% 45.0% 33.0% 7.0% 29.0% 57.0% 29.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/23/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/23/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 7( 7) 14( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 3( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 57 64 73 80 93 97 101 100 101 100 100 99 98 97 101 97 18HR AGO 50 49 56 65 72 85 89 93 92 93 92 92 91 90 89 93 89 12HR AGO 50 47 46 55 62 75 79 83 82 83 82 82 81 80 79 83 79 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 47 60 64 68 67 68 67 67 66 65 64 68 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT