* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/23/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 34 37 35 34 34 33 33 33 33 35 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 34 37 35 34 34 33 33 33 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 26 26 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 24 28 29 30 32 27 28 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 1 0 3 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 291 297 300 297 276 284 292 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.5 26.1 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 132 133 132 128 120 115 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 115 115 114 113 106 102 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 -55.8 -56.0 -56.2 -56.3 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 42 45 47 49 52 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -51 -55 -54 -66 -59 -10 64 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 7 6 -4 -10 7 3 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 8 6 6 6 6 14 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2508 2547 2450 2382 2315 2291 2214 1979 1792 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.7 26.4 27.1 27.8 28.7 29.2 29.8 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.3 41.8 42.4 42.3 42.1 40.4 37.5 34.7 32.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 7 7 11 12 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 29 28 19 13 10 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -6. -10. -14. -19. -22. -25. -29. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.9 41.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/23/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 8.3% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.4% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172021 ROSE 09/23/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/23/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 34 37 35 34 34 33 33 33 33 35 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 31 31 33 36 34 33 33 32 32 32 32 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 28 28 30 33 31 30 30 29 29 29 29 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 21 23 26 24 23 23 22 22 22 22 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT