* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/22/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 29 31 32 33 32 36 40 41 41 40 40 39 42 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 29 31 32 33 32 36 40 41 41 40 40 39 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 26 26 26 27 27 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 18 19 25 26 27 32 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -4 -5 -1 0 -1 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 319 318 312 310 290 298 264 272 246 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 123 126 129 130 128 123 118 114 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 109 111 113 112 111 107 104 100 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -56.0 -56.3 -56.3 -56.4 -56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 41 40 43 46 50 51 54 53 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 8 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -41 -36 -33 -43 -46 -58 -38 -11 69 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -34 -31 -15 -10 15 0 24 21 25 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 2 2 4 4 6 7 6 10 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2178 2245 2312 2366 2421 2466 2349 2323 2126 1922 1736 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.8 25.4 26.7 28.0 29.1 29.6 30.5 31.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.1 38.8 39.4 39.9 40.4 41.1 40.7 38.8 36.4 33.9 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 17 15 19 23 16 12 8 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 20. 20. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -6. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -22. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 6. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.1 38.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/22/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.45 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 7.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172021 ROSE 09/22/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/22/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 29 29 31 32 33 32 36 40 41 41 40 40 39 42 18HR AGO 30 29 28 29 29 31 32 33 32 36 40 41 41 40 40 39 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 29 30 31 30 34 38 39 39 38 38 37 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 23 24 23 27 31 32 32 31 31 30 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT