* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/22/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 34 34 33 34 32 32 35 35 35 34 35 35 37 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 34 34 33 34 32 32 35 35 35 34 35 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 33 33 32 32 32 32 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 19 18 17 19 24 30 27 33 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -4 -4 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 319 319 314 303 290 291 287 264 271 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.4 26.0 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 123 124 127 129 128 124 118 115 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 110 110 112 111 110 108 104 101 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -55.4 -55.7 -56.4 -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 42 42 42 45 46 51 52 56 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 8 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -30 -33 -32 -28 -39 -45 -42 -11 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -27 -36 -14 -8 8 0 8 18 18 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 5 2 2 3 2 5 6 12 16 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2139 2199 2261 2319 2380 2475 2351 2276 2223 1996 1797 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.3 23.9 24.6 25.3 26.7 27.9 29.2 30.0 30.8 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.7 38.3 38.9 39.4 40.0 40.8 40.9 39.6 37.3 34.6 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 10 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 17 14 15 21 15 12 8 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 792 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -10. -9. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.7 37.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/22/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.40 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.36 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 6.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.5% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172021 ROSE 09/22/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/22/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 34 34 34 33 34 32 32 35 35 35 34 35 35 37 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 34 33 34 32 32 35 35 35 34 35 35 37 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 31 30 31 29 29 32 32 32 31 32 32 34 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 24 25 23 23 26 26 26 25 26 26 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT