* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/21/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 31 31 30 30 30 28 33 33 33 33 33 33 35 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 31 31 30 30 30 28 33 33 33 33 33 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 28 28 28 28 28 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 17 18 18 16 23 26 28 28 33 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 -4 -4 0 0 1 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 328 324 319 313 295 283 288 268 272 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.0 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 124 123 124 129 129 126 121 115 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 112 111 110 110 113 110 108 106 102 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -55.1 -55.6 -56.3 -56.3 -56.1 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 46 44 44 47 47 51 50 55 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -6 -21 -30 -29 -35 -37 -50 -15 40 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -2 -23 -34 -23 -5 10 7 36 10 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 4 3 1 2 2 4 5 10 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2111 2162 2220 2277 2336 2440 2357 2261 2240 2134 1892 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.9 23.6 24.3 24.9 26.3 27.8 29.0 30.1 31.1 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.4 37.9 38.5 39.1 39.6 40.5 41.0 40.4 38.5 35.8 32.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 11 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 18 15 13 17 17 12 8 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 883 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -9. -10. -10. -11. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.2 37.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/21/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.41 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 7.3% 6.3% 5.1% 3.0% 6.8% 4.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.7% 2.2% 1.8% 1.0% 2.5% 1.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172021 ROSE 09/21/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/21/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 31 31 31 30 30 30 28 33 33 33 33 33 33 35 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 32 32 31 31 31 29 34 34 34 34 34 34 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 30 29 29 29 27 32 32 32 32 32 32 34 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 24 24 24 22 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT