* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/21/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 29 29 30 28 27 25 23 23 26 31 31 30 29 32 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 29 29 30 28 27 25 23 23 26 31 31 30 29 32 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 27 26 25 25 25 25 24 25 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 15 16 16 19 23 26 29 34 28 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 1 -2 -2 0 4 2 -1 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 311 315 317 313 296 286 291 285 279 285 268 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.5 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 125 123 122 127 129 128 124 119 114 110 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 114 112 110 109 112 111 110 107 103 100 97 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -55.3 -55.7 -56.2 -56.3 -56.1 -56.1 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.3 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 47 45 46 48 47 51 51 57 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 5 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 6 0 -15 -24 -26 -30 -41 -47 -16 33 64 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 13 -2 -22 -31 -8 9 -10 -5 15 19 31 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 8 6 4 2 1 3 4 6 8 9 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2032 2086 2136 2194 2251 2381 2468 2349 2252 2266 2063 1861 1716 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.1 22.9 23.5 24.1 25.4 26.8 28.0 29.4 30.2 30.7 31.7 33.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.6 37.1 37.7 38.2 38.8 40.0 40.8 40.7 39.7 37.8 35.2 32.6 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 9 10 12 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 14 17 15 12 21 14 12 6 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 14 CX,CY: -7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 809 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -14. -16. -17. -20. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -9. -4. -4. -5. -6. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.2 36.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/21/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.42 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 5.7% 4.7% 4.4% 2.6% 6.5% 4.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.1% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% 2.3% 1.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172021 ROSE 09/21/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/21/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 31 29 29 30 28 27 25 23 23 26 31 31 30 29 32 18HR AGO 35 34 33 31 31 32 30 29 27 25 25 28 33 33 32 31 34 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 29 30 28 27 25 23 23 26 31 31 30 29 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 24 23 21 19 19 22 27 27 26 25 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT