* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/21/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 36 35 33 33 30 28 27 30 40 36 33 33 35 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 36 35 33 33 30 28 27 30 40 36 33 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 36 35 34 34 34 34 33 33 35 38 38 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 19 15 17 16 23 26 31 28 33 24 29 28 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 6 5 0 -4 1 1 0 2 0 3 1 4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 300 315 319 321 305 290 280 282 267 283 240 263 240 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.5 27.4 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.5 25.2 24.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 125 124 122 126 130 128 127 122 119 115 109 105 101 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 116 114 111 109 111 113 110 108 105 104 100 93 88 85 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -55.2 -55.6 -56.1 -56.2 -56.5 -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 0.3 0.5 0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 51 50 47 45 48 48 51 50 58 58 60 57 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 6 13 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 17 4 -5 -17 -24 -25 -38 -55 -51 -1 58 75 71 66 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 -1 1 -17 -29 -13 -1 14 -12 23 12 39 7 19 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 7 3 1 1 1 4 5 4 11 10 -3 -10 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1996 2052 2110 2162 2220 2338 2463 2359 2259 2227 2234 2039 1887 1802 1776 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.5 22.4 23.2 23.9 25.1 26.5 27.7 28.8 29.7 30.3 31.0 31.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.2 36.8 37.4 37.9 38.5 39.6 40.7 41.2 40.9 39.6 37.3 35.0 32.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 9 11 10 9 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 14 17 11 17 18 13 9 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 17 CX,CY: -9/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 853 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -14. -5. -10. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -3. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -10. -12. -13. -10. -0. -4. -7. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.5 36.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/21/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 6.6% 5.6% 4.6% 2.6% 6.8% 5.9% 2.7% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.5% 2.1% 1.6% 0.9% 2.5% 2.1% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172021 ROSE 09/21/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/21/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 37 36 35 33 33 30 28 27 30 40 36 33 33 35 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 36 35 33 33 30 28 27 30 40 36 33 33 35 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 33 31 31 28 26 25 28 38 34 31 31 33 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 26 26 23 21 20 23 33 29 26 26 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT