* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/21/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 47 45 42 42 42 40 36 34 31 31 31 31 32 31 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 47 45 42 42 42 40 36 34 31 31 31 31 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 49 48 47 45 44 45 46 44 43 40 38 36 35 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 20 20 16 15 17 21 27 29 37 35 35 31 36 35 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 3 4 -3 -1 -1 0 1 -1 3 4 5 -2 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 246 266 290 306 317 315 292 283 290 285 285 302 291 289 290 278 275 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.7 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 124 125 125 123 126 128 127 124 121 117 111 105 102 101 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 116 115 115 113 110 111 111 108 106 105 103 97 89 85 84 83 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -55.4 -55.8 -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.1 -55.7 -55.9 -56.6 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 48 50 50 49 48 43 42 45 47 50 51 55 54 55 52 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 10 9 6 6 5 4 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 34 18 0 -4 -33 -34 -33 -45 -57 -46 14 71 91 61 33 33 200 MB DIV 42 28 2 -14 -21 -27 -14 2 -7 -24 -3 55 3 0 -16 -5 -35 700-850 TADV 8 4 11 9 6 2 1 1 3 5 6 2 16 2 -1 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1921 1966 2017 2068 2121 2230 2346 2430 2436 2376 2292 2143 1926 1806 1780 1798 1846 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.2 23.5 24.8 26.3 27.3 28.2 29.3 30.5 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.2 35.8 36.4 36.9 37.5 38.6 39.7 40.4 40.3 39.6 38.3 36.2 33.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 5 7 9 12 11 6 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 11 13 15 16 17 18 15 15 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 792 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -3. -3. -5. -9. -11. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.6 35.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/21/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.58 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 12.1% 8.2% 7.7% 5.3% 8.5% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 4.0% 3.3% 1.7% 0.3% 2.5% 1.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 5.6% 4.0% 3.2% 1.9% 3.7% 3.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172021 ROSE 09/21/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/21/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 47 45 42 42 42 40 36 34 31 31 31 31 32 31 18HR AGO 45 44 45 44 42 39 39 39 37 33 31 28 28 28 28 29 28 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 35 35 35 33 29 27 24 24 24 24 25 24 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 30 30 30 28 24 22 19 19 19 19 20 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT