* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/20/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 32 31 37 43 47 46 42 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 32 31 37 43 47 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 34 32 31 31 32 33 33 34 35 39 42 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 20 24 20 17 16 23 25 29 30 32 27 21 20 29 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 1 -3 0 1 0 1 4 0 0 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 242 242 266 292 307 326 307 292 272 276 262 268 261 283 263 271 274 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.4 25.7 25.4 24.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 125 124 124 123 122 127 127 124 120 119 118 112 109 99 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 117 114 113 110 108 111 110 105 102 101 101 97 94 85 79 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.7 -54.7 -55.3 -55.7 -56.4 -56.4 -56.0 -55.9 -55.7 -56.1 -56.4 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 52 51 50 45 50 49 53 49 53 54 53 53 44 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 4 4 5 5 8 12 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 64 49 33 11 -1 -19 -27 -29 -32 -49 -48 2 89 108 84 53 23 200 MB DIV 49 56 37 14 -18 -30 -17 2 8 -2 7 15 42 13 12 22 -30 700-850 TADV 10 9 6 11 10 2 2 3 3 7 2 4 2 7 4 -8 -28 LAND (KM) 1793 1872 1938 1987 2040 2137 2245 2358 2416 2305 2242 2192 2152 2133 2026 1970 1886 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 19.0 20.1 21.0 21.9 23.4 24.8 26.1 27.5 28.6 29.5 30.5 31.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.0 34.8 35.6 36.1 36.7 37.7 38.7 39.7 40.3 40.3 39.7 38.7 37.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 10 10 8 8 7 7 5 6 8 10 12 11 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 9 11 10 13 9 16 15 11 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. 16. 15. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -21. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -15. -10. -8. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 2. 8. 12. 11. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.9 34.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/20/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 9.9% 6.9% 6.4% 4.4% 7.4% 6.9% 5.3% Logistic: 4.9% 5.1% 3.5% 2.2% 0.6% 2.8% 2.2% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.0% 3.5% 2.9% 1.7% 3.4% 3.0% 2.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/20/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 37 36 35 35 36 34 33 32 31 37 43 47 46 42 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 34 33 33 34 32 31 30 29 35 41 45 44 40 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 29 29 30 28 27 26 25 31 37 41 40 36 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 23 24 22 21 20 19 25 31 35 34 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT