* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/20/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 38 38 37 37 39 38 37 36 36 37 37 42 44 45 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 38 38 37 37 39 38 37 36 36 37 37 42 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 35 34 33 33 34 35 36 36 36 38 39 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 16 18 23 19 14 20 18 22 20 24 25 40 29 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 5 5 2 5 -2 -3 0 0 1 -1 0 -4 -3 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 262 261 248 263 292 318 310 281 272 279 277 277 283 269 268 281 281 SST (C) 26.8 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 124 127 126 126 125 124 122 124 130 131 128 127 121 119 118 115 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 120 119 115 111 108 109 113 112 108 107 102 99 98 95 92 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -55.3 -55.8 -56.3 -56.6 -56.9 -56.8 -56.3 -56.4 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 52 52 51 50 51 54 56 55 55 59 59 57 48 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 5 5 4 5 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 62 65 55 30 13 -8 -31 -29 -41 -42 -61 -63 -51 7 74 44 26 200 MB DIV 58 67 60 42 3 -27 -13 2 4 2 -11 -4 3 11 -7 -4 -35 700-850 TADV 4 4 7 8 7 7 2 2 3 6 5 2 2 -2 4 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1671 1781 1874 1933 2001 2098 2200 2307 2436 2431 2310 2221 2185 2129 2062 2025 2018 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.8 18.9 20.1 21.2 22.6 23.9 25.0 25.9 27.0 28.1 29.1 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.0 33.9 34.8 35.5 36.3 37.3 38.3 39.3 40.5 41.2 41.4 41.1 40.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 11 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 6 9 11 13 11 14 21 16 11 8 4 3 4 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -14. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -14. -16. -19. -20. -21. -19. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 7. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 33.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/20/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.47 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.0% 8.5% 7.3% 5.1% 8.2% 8.2% 8.1% Logistic: 9.8% 8.5% 6.4% 3.0% 0.7% 3.1% 1.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 3.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 7.2% 5.1% 3.4% 1.9% 3.8% 3.3% 3.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/20/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 38 38 37 37 39 38 37 36 36 37 37 42 44 45 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 35 34 34 36 35 34 33 33 34 34 39 41 42 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 30 30 32 31 30 29 29 30 30 35 37 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 24 26 25 24 23 23 24 24 29 31 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT