* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/20/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 41 41 42 43 45 46 45 45 45 46 48 49 52 53 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 41 41 42 43 45 46 45 45 45 46 48 49 52 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 39 38 38 38 40 41 42 43 44 44 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 7 14 17 21 17 15 19 21 20 21 20 20 16 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 5 4 2 3 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 14 330 279 252 265 306 325 296 295 275 284 279 296 290 284 237 214 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.0 27.4 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 127 125 124 124 124 123 128 131 130 130 127 123 117 117 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 125 122 118 116 114 111 109 113 113 111 110 108 105 99 97 101 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -55.4 -56.0 -56.1 -56.5 -56.7 -57.3 -56.9 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 53 51 52 52 52 51 53 49 51 51 55 56 58 57 56 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 65 65 45 26 -2 -19 -37 -43 -53 -69 -60 -43 -40 -22 5 22 200 MB DIV 56 58 61 59 39 -29 -22 -13 -3 -1 -19 -4 -4 31 -6 25 0 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 9 7 9 3 4 4 5 3 2 8 9 12 6 1 LAND (KM) 1568 1674 1785 1869 1917 2031 2116 2221 2367 2478 2410 2310 2266 2245 2232 2166 2048 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.4 17.4 18.4 19.4 21.3 22.8 24.0 25.0 26.1 27.1 28.1 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.1 33.1 34.0 34.6 35.3 36.6 37.5 38.5 39.9 40.9 41.5 41.4 40.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 12 12 10 8 8 8 6 5 5 6 7 5 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 6 5 3 3 5 14 11 19 20 17 13 9 5 2 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. 13. 14. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.4 32.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/20/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.3% 9.3% 7.8% 5.7% 8.8% 8.6% 9.1% Logistic: 10.6% 11.6% 10.9% 5.7% 1.0% 3.1% 1.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 2.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 9.5% 7.0% 4.5% 2.2% 4.0% 3.3% 3.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/20/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 41 41 42 43 45 46 45 45 45 46 48 49 52 53 18HR AGO 35 34 37 38 38 39 40 42 43 42 42 42 43 45 46 49 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 33 34 36 37 36 36 36 37 39 40 43 44 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 27 29 30 29 29 29 30 32 33 36 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT