* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/20/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 45 45 45 46 47 45 44 41 40 39 37 39 39 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 45 45 45 46 47 45 44 41 40 39 37 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 43 44 43 42 42 43 43 43 43 41 39 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 8 13 20 19 16 21 20 26 30 39 36 37 28 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 2 5 0 4 -1 -2 0 0 2 0 4 6 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 8 346 297 261 253 282 302 303 278 269 277 268 268 281 300 292 284 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 127 126 124 124 124 122 123 129 131 131 128 123 120 118 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 129 122 121 117 114 112 108 108 113 112 111 108 103 100 96 97 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -55.0 -55.5 -55.9 -56.4 -56.4 -56.5 -56.3 -56.5 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.5 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 56 55 53 56 55 53 49 47 49 52 52 52 52 60 61 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 64 59 53 42 20 1 -25 -21 -30 -31 -33 -36 -10 21 54 51 200 MB DIV 55 63 52 69 70 0 -22 -19 -16 -4 12 6 4 3 12 11 22 700-850 TADV 2 2 7 6 9 7 5 4 2 3 4 4 2 2 8 5 0 LAND (KM) 1407 1516 1631 1735 1822 1930 2044 2139 2258 2399 2413 2299 2215 2199 2201 2192 2143 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.9 16.9 17.9 18.9 21.0 22.8 24.1 25.2 26.2 27.1 28.1 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.6 31.6 32.6 33.4 34.3 35.6 36.8 37.7 38.8 40.1 41.4 41.7 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 11 9 8 7 8 5 6 5 5 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 20 11 6 4 3 4 7 7 10 18 17 13 9 5 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -21. -20. -20. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. 2. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.8 30.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/20/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 20.3% 12.4% 9.2% 6.7% 10.2% 10.1% 10.2% Logistic: 18.7% 19.7% 18.3% 9.4% 1.6% 5.5% 2.3% 1.3% Bayesian: 8.7% 11.0% 5.1% 0.5% 0.3% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% Consensus: 11.2% 17.0% 11.9% 6.4% 2.9% 5.8% 4.5% 3.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/20/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 44 45 45 45 46 47 45 44 41 40 39 37 39 39 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 41 41 41 42 43 41 40 37 36 35 33 35 35 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 35 35 35 36 37 35 34 31 30 29 27 29 29 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 26 27 28 26 25 22 21 20 18 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT