* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSE AL172021 09/19/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 43 44 45 47 49 48 46 44 43 41 40 44 47 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 43 44 45 47 49 48 46 44 43 41 40 44 47 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 44 44 42 41 41 41 40 40 39 38 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 7 8 17 20 17 19 24 28 29 35 34 34 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 5 3 4 5 3 2 -5 -3 -1 -1 -1 3 5 1 0 SHEAR DIR 17 360 343 293 273 262 304 314 305 289 280 282 259 285 280 290 259 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.9 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 132 127 127 124 123 123 122 128 130 130 128 127 125 120 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 129 122 121 117 112 110 109 111 112 111 107 106 104 100 99 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6 -55.2 -55.7 -56.4 -56.6 -56.4 -55.8 -55.9 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 56 57 56 53 51 47 47 47 52 50 58 59 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 4 7 9 850 MB ENV VOR 76 72 61 54 47 26 2 -8 -24 -24 -32 -40 -34 0 46 64 60 200 MB DIV 73 74 76 62 62 39 -4 -13 -17 -7 2 7 15 -3 16 4 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 7 5 8 5 3 0 0 1 2 1 2 1 9 17 LAND (KM) 1286 1397 1515 1620 1730 1876 2009 2097 2234 2365 2451 2325 2227 2182 2166 2168 2182 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.8 15.8 16.9 17.9 20.1 22.0 23.5 24.7 25.8 27.0 28.0 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.4 30.5 31.6 32.5 33.4 35.0 36.4 37.3 38.6 39.8 40.7 41.3 41.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 13 10 8 8 7 7 5 3 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 11 6 4 3 4 10 8 19 16 13 10 8 6 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 14 CX,CY: -6/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -17. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -18. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 13. 11. 9. 8. 6. 6. 9. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.8 29.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 ROSE 09/19/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 16.5% 10.3% 8.0% 5.9% 9.8% 10.6% 12.2% Logistic: 11.0% 16.1% 11.0% 3.9% 0.9% 3.8% 2.2% 1.8% Bayesian: 6.3% 0.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 10.9% 7.9% 4.0% 2.3% 4.8% 4.6% 4.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 ROSE 09/19/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 41 43 44 45 47 49 48 46 44 43 41 40 44 47 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 40 41 43 45 44 42 40 39 37 36 40 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 35 36 38 40 39 37 35 34 32 31 35 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 28 29 31 33 32 30 28 27 25 24 28 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT