* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN AL172021 09/19/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 35 38 39 41 42 42 40 38 36 34 34 36 38 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 35 38 39 41 42 42 40 38 36 34 34 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 34 33 31 30 29 29 29 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 3 5 8 16 25 19 21 20 25 30 28 32 25 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 6 1 1 6 0 7 -3 -2 -3 0 0 3 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 32 39 19 316 287 254 269 306 313 305 303 304 306 305 327 335 353 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 133 128 124 124 124 122 124 129 130 129 126 126 123 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 136 132 124 118 114 112 108 110 113 112 108 104 104 103 100 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -55.9 -56.6 -56.7 -56.6 -56.3 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 56 55 56 57 54 49 46 46 47 51 52 54 52 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 12 12 10 10 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 69 62 53 49 40 10 -7 -32 -37 -46 -52 -12 7 12 18 4 200 MB DIV 77 92 82 76 73 85 25 -7 -29 -5 -3 -2 -4 -17 -30 -32 -18 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 3 6 10 11 5 0 0 -1 2 2 0 1 4 -2 LAND (KM) 1191 1256 1333 1451 1577 1770 1888 2013 2119 2248 2403 2363 2229 2168 2169 2160 2163 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.7 14.7 15.8 16.8 18.9 21.0 22.8 24.0 25.2 26.5 27.7 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.3 29.1 29.9 31.0 32.1 33.8 35.2 36.5 37.5 38.7 40.1 41.1 41.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 14 13 11 9 8 9 8 7 5 2 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 20 15 8 3 3 5 7 9 17 14 10 7 7 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -18. -19. -20. -19. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. 4. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 28.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 SEVENTEEN 09/19/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 13.1% 8.5% 6.5% 4.7% 8.7% 9.5% 11.1% Logistic: 2.0% 5.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.7% 3.8% 2.3% 1.6% 3.3% 3.6% 4.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 SEVENTEEN 09/19/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 35 38 39 41 42 42 40 38 36 34 34 36 38 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 34 37 38 40 41 41 39 37 35 33 33 35 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 33 34 36 37 37 35 33 31 29 29 31 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 27 29 30 30 28 26 24 22 22 24 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT