* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN AL172021 09/19/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 44 47 50 51 49 47 49 50 52 53 56 57 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 44 47 50 51 49 47 49 50 52 53 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 36 39 42 42 41 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 7 5 5 21 20 22 22 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 7 5 2 4 4 3 1 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 29 40 47 54 20 266 248 293 307 315 313 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.5 26.5 26.3 26.6 26.9 26.8 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 138 132 120 118 119 122 120 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 141 136 129 116 110 109 109 106 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.9 -53.7 -54.3 -54.2 -54.9 -54.9 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 57 55 51 52 54 55 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 11 10 10 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 69 65 62 51 45 23 -2 -17 -31 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 91 89 89 84 61 46 -15 -25 -8 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 2 4 7 10 5 2 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1191 1223 1269 1361 1460 1701 1880 1948 2035 2170 2304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 14 15 12 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 17 18 21 14 1 1 2 5 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 17. 20. 21. 19. 17. 19. 20. 22. 23. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 27.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172021 SEVENTEEN 09/19/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 15.1% 9.5% 7.6% 5.4% 9.8% 10.5% 11.6% Logistic: 4.5% 14.2% 7.6% 4.7% 1.7% 7.0% 2.8% 2.4% Bayesian: 1.4% 4.9% 6.1% 0.5% 0.2% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 11.4% 7.7% 4.3% 2.4% 6.4% 4.9% 4.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172021 SEVENTEEN 09/19/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 44 47 50 51 49 47 49 50 52 53 56 57 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 41 44 47 48 46 44 46 47 49 50 53 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 39 42 43 41 39 41 42 44 45 48 49 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 31 34 35 33 31 33 34 36 37 40 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT