* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/29/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 36 35 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 36 35 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 32 31 29 27 26 26 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 30 33 37 41 49 45 45 56 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 4 2 -2 2 3 0 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 240 245 252 258 291 296 296 283 270 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 24.6 19.3 15.2 15.3 18.0 19.1 19.2 19.0 9.2 7.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 106 82 74 74 81 85 85 85 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 95 77 71 71 77 81 82 81 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.4 -56.2 -56.8 -57.0 -56.7 -56.4 -57.3 -58.6 -60.2 -59.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -1.0 -1.2 -1.3 -0.9 -0.5 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 58 66 69 68 65 66 73 77 71 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -36 -31 -46 -74 -65 -24 41 85 71 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 25 26 64 28 -26 5 77 49 63 -156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 5 28 19 18 38 36 2 104 53 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 901 701 511 440 593 1219 1319 331 -26 -191 -369 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.6 40.4 42.4 44.5 46.0 46.8 45.5 44.3 46.2 52.4 61.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.2 52.7 50.8 48.4 45.4 36.7 25.3 12.8 0.8 -8.5 -13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 23 26 26 27 35 43 44 43 44 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 19 CX,CY: 12/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 2. -9. -21. -31. -40. -49. -58. -71. -78. -82. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 0. -6. -11. -18. -25. -33. -42. -52. -58. -61. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 38.6 54.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/29/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/29/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/29/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 36 35 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 32 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT