* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/29/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 26 28 30 28 24 26 46 43 36 28 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 26 28 30 28 24 26 46 31 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 22 20 19 18 17 17 18 21 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 28 28 31 32 39 47 50 45 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 0 1 2 0 5 2 -7 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 237 234 240 245 261 287 292 299 304 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.3 25.4 25.1 19.1 14.9 17.9 18.9 19.5 19.1 9.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 112 111 82 74 81 85 86 85 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 104 100 99 76 71 77 81 82 81 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.1 -56.3 -56.2 -56.3 -57.1 -56.7 -56.7 -58.0 -59.0 -60.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -0.5 -1.6 -0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 56 61 65 68 66 70 73 75 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 4 4 5 5 4 3 6 13 31 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -38 -26 -32 -22 -72 -64 -29 26 68 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 27 34 27 36 30 -16 15 31 59 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 11 6 6 25 44 53 25 12 57 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1135 1041 936 711 506 586 1200 1310 400 33 -402 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.7 38.3 40.3 42.4 46.0 47.0 46.0 44.7 45.4 49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.0 56.0 54.6 53.0 51.0 45.5 36.9 25.7 13.5 1.6 -8.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 17 21 25 26 27 34 42 43 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 4. -6. -17. -27. -38. -46. -54. -66. -73. -76. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 22. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -2. 6. 29. 32. 31. 29. 27. 25. 23. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 3. -1. 1. 21. 18. 11. 3. -8. -16. -23. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 35.5 57.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/29/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/29/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/29/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 26 28 30 28 24 26 46 31 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 28 30 28 24 26 46 31 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 27 25 21 23 43 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT