* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/29/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 36 32 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 36 32 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 25 25 25 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 29 27 25 30 33 41 42 47 36 56 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 4 0 3 0 2 -1 7 -6 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 246 240 236 239 255 271 296 309 315 310 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.9 26.4 25.5 25.6 15.8 19.5 17.9 19.1 18.4 19.5 10.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 124 121 113 115 75 83 81 85 83 85 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 107 106 101 103 71 77 77 81 80 81 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.9 -56.2 -56.3 -56.3 -56.9 -57.0 -56.9 -57.7 -59.0 -59.7 -60.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 56 54 55 58 68 68 69 69 65 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -44 -44 -36 -37 -55 -85 -57 -46 27 -56 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 17 29 13 16 68 -24 -18 24 26 49 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 15 7 6 27 41 45 62 26 107 190 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1234 1178 1075 969 756 474 845 1546 1005 92 -114 -286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.2 35.1 36.4 38.0 39.9 44.0 46.4 46.3 44.8 43.2 43.6 47.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.7 57.0 55.9 54.4 52.8 48.4 41.8 32.5 21.4 10.2 0.2 -8.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 18 21 24 26 28 36 41 39 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 3. -5. -15. -21. -32. -43. -51. -62. -69. -72. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 19. 20. 22. 22. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 2. -6. -12. -18. -25. -33. -41. -48. -53. -57. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.2 57.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/29/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 5.2% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/29/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/29/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 34 36 32 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 34 30 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT