* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/28/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 38 39 35 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 38 39 35 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 36 35 34 32 30 29 29 29 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 33 32 31 31 32 43 48 46 44 51 53 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 0 1 2 2 -2 0 5 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 238 246 242 244 251 261 285 301 318 327 312 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.9 26.3 25.3 18.5 15.3 17.8 18.6 19.3 17.3 29.7 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 117 125 120 112 80 74 80 84 86 79 171 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 100 108 106 100 75 71 76 80 82 76 157 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.8 -56.0 -56.2 -56.3 -56.4 -57.2 -57.0 -57.4 -58.8 -59.4 -59.6 -58.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.8 -0.5 -1.3 -1.4 -1.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 55 56 55 66 66 67 71 70 63 65 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 6 5 4 5 6 19 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -60 -53 -48 -43 -42 -76 -87 -69 -35 -25 -52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 27 28 25 10 50 22 -24 3 21 22 49 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 3 5 12 8 32 27 42 11 30 46 34 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1253 1206 1141 1030 902 483 597 1166 1386 548 -115 -9 -135 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.3 35.4 36.8 38.6 42.7 45.9 46.8 46.0 44.2 42.6 42.7 45.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.6 58.1 57.2 56.0 54.4 50.7 45.4 37.4 26.9 15.7 5.9 -2.8 -10.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 11 15 20 23 26 25 32 39 39 34 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 811 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. -0. -9. -18. -27. -36. -45. -53. -62. -69. -72. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. 13. 5. -2. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. -0. -7. -14. -22. -10. -23. -34. -44. -48. -51. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.6 58.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/28/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/28/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/28/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 38 39 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 36 37 33 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 33 29 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT