* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/28/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 34 36 33 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 34 36 33 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 26 24 23 22 22 22 23 24 26 26 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 33 36 37 37 39 43 47 39 38 26 23 18 22 12 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 -1 2 -3 -3 -8 -7 -8 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 237 232 234 243 243 252 259 280 307 328 345 38 72 106 110 42 39 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.9 26.4 25.6 20.3 16.6 18.5 19.5 20.4 21.2 22.0 23.3 23.4 23.6 24.1 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 125 120 114 85 76 80 83 86 88 90 95 95 96 99 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 99 107 104 100 78 72 75 78 80 81 82 85 85 85 89 92 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -56.0 -56.2 -56.5 -57.1 -57.2 -57.7 -58.4 -59.2 -58.6 -57.9 -57.1 -57.3 -57.0 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 2 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 53 53 57 65 59 58 57 52 40 29 22 20 19 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -61 -70 -66 -48 -25 -61 -90 -96 -128 -93 -56 -48 -69 -42 -32 -40 200 MB DIV 36 39 26 21 26 26 33 -34 -38 -38 -26 -70 -31 -32 -37 -23 -31 700-850 TADV 4 11 6 6 14 15 32 31 39 32 17 -13 -8 0 6 12 12 LAND (KM) 1251 1192 1141 1051 961 583 548 1055 1680 1194 740 452 365 369 366 502 687 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.3 35.3 36.5 37.9 41.6 45.1 46.1 45.1 43.1 40.3 37.0 33.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.9 58.4 57.5 56.3 55.0 51.4 46.4 39.1 31.2 23.8 17.8 14.0 12.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 14 16 20 24 26 27 29 28 25 19 14 12 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 1. -9. -19. -26. -33. -38. -41. -47. -48. -47. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 3. -5. -12. -18. -23. -26. -27. -29. -28. -26. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.5 58.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/28/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/28/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/28/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 33 34 36 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 35 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT