* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/28/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 33 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 33 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 27 25 25 25 23 23 22 22 25 23 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 30 32 33 36 35 35 42 47 43 49 39 38 31 23 13 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 3 0 0 -2 -2 2 -5 -2 -7 -9 2 12 16 SHEAR DIR 224 235 237 232 232 247 258 269 280 304 313 328 360 30 24 20 333 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.3 25.6 21.2 17.9 17.7 18.5 19.8 20.7 20.6 21.7 22.0 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 116 118 119 121 118 113 88 79 80 82 85 87 84 87 90 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 101 102 104 102 100 80 74 75 78 80 80 76 78 82 128 124 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -55.8 -55.9 -56.3 -56.7 -57.1 -57.2 -57.4 -58.1 -59.3 -59.3 -58.4 -57.2 -56.6 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 1 3 2 700-500 MB RH 48 49 51 50 51 55 58 69 71 58 54 49 41 38 38 35 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -55 -56 -65 -69 -85 -70 -52 -46 -52 -66 -30 -62 -45 -17 -13 -69 200 MB DIV 27 15 22 26 18 28 29 55 -16 -22 -9 -29 -32 -11 -18 -28 -33 700-850 TADV 0 0 6 10 8 19 26 32 26 16 17 -10 -11 -5 14 7 11 LAND (KM) 1383 1323 1264 1220 1150 956 632 640 1166 1431 771 254 -27 28 -52 -237 -158 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.9 33.8 34.7 35.7 38.1 41.5 45.0 46.8 46.1 43.6 40.3 37.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.9 58.6 57.9 57.0 55.8 53.3 49.9 45.2 37.4 27.7 18.6 11.9 7.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 13 14 19 23 26 31 35 33 26 17 14 20 19 16 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 818 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -7. -16. -24. -34. -41. -48. -56. -59. -58. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -5. -16. -24. -29. -34. -39. -40. -36. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.2 58.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/28/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/28/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/28/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 34 35 33 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 33 31 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 27 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT