* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/27/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 38 39 39 36 35 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 38 39 39 36 35 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 33 32 32 31 30 29 29 31 31 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 17 23 26 27 29 31 32 33 39 44 43 43 30 29 23 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -1 -3 -1 2 1 -1 -2 0 0 -2 1 -10 -4 -8 -11 SHEAR DIR 231 226 233 242 244 240 254 267 271 280 302 312 313 11 40 89 139 SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.1 26.9 26.0 25.7 22.5 20.5 18.1 18.9 19.8 21.1 21.6 22.9 21.7 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 117 119 122 125 123 115 114 93 85 79 82 84 88 88 92 84 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 102 103 106 105 99 99 83 78 74 77 79 81 80 82 74 68 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.9 -56.1 -56.3 -56.8 -57.3 -57.5 -57.8 -58.2 -59.4 -59.4 -58.7 -57.7 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 5 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 46 47 49 54 58 65 70 63 57 52 40 32 25 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 4 4 3 2 3 6 7 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -36 -41 -47 -45 -62 -95 -84 -66 -68 -79 -121 -65 -57 -31 -44 -45 200 MB DIV 9 43 23 2 20 19 17 32 48 -19 -18 -37 -31 -68 -23 -14 17 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 1 4 7 16 23 31 26 32 19 -5 -18 -14 -6 -8 LAND (KM) 1496 1440 1399 1363 1311 1205 962 705 724 1158 1579 1013 563 256 194 11 -73 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.9 32.6 33.3 34.1 35.8 38.1 41.2 44.4 46.2 45.6 43.4 40.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.9 58.2 57.5 56.8 56.0 54.1 51.8 48.7 44.4 37.7 29.5 21.6 15.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 10 11 13 18 21 24 27 30 29 25 19 12 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 4 10 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 2. -4. -10. -17. -26. -33. -38. -45. -48. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. -12. -12. -7. -7. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 5. -1. -11. -17. -21. -20. -20. -24. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.1 58.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/27/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.5% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/27/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/27/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 36 38 39 39 36 35 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 35 36 36 33 32 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 30 30 27 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 23 23 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT