* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/27/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 43 42 43 41 34 28 22 20 21 21 21 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 43 42 43 41 34 28 22 20 21 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 34 34 34 34 34 33 31 30 30 30 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 20 23 23 25 29 25 27 31 39 33 29 25 37 29 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 0 -3 2 0 2 0 2 -2 2 3 -4 -12 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 234 231 222 229 236 238 249 259 270 270 294 310 351 5 60 106 147 SST (C) 27.0 26.4 26.6 27.1 27.4 27.0 26.0 25.5 22.4 21.5 20.3 20.1 21.0 22.2 22.8 24.1 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 117 119 125 128 124 115 112 93 89 85 84 86 90 92 100 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 101 102 106 109 106 99 99 84 81 78 77 79 81 83 89 92 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -56.1 -56.4 -56.8 -57.2 -57.4 -57.8 -58.7 -58.4 -57.9 -57.0 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 700-500 MB RH 50 49 49 49 48 49 53 54 60 66 60 55 52 45 35 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 4 3 3 3 7 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -42 -36 -31 -37 -33 -56 -74 -80 -68 -91 -125 -137 -123 -136 -140 -130 200 MB DIV 4 14 34 15 -8 22 18 9 41 0 -39 -55 -103 -66 -57 -58 -23 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 2 1 8 10 14 23 32 27 20 18 -6 -12 -23 -15 LAND (KM) 1428 1514 1511 1478 1450 1364 1233 970 707 852 1334 1624 1205 969 952 908 1006 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.5 31.2 31.8 32.4 33.8 35.6 38.1 41.6 44.5 45.1 44.0 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.5 58.9 58.2 57.5 56.8 55.3 53.4 51.1 47.8 42.6 35.8 29.2 23.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 11 13 19 23 24 25 24 21 18 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 0 2 5 8 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -5. -10. -16. -22. -27. -32. -37. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -4. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 12. 13. 11. 4. -2. -8. -10. -9. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.9 59.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/27/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 7.7% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/27/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/27/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 41 43 42 43 41 34 28 22 20 21 21 21 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 41 40 41 39 32 26 20 18 19 19 19 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 36 35 36 34 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 28 27 28 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT