* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/27/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 40 40 39 38 32 26 21 23 22 20 19 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 40 40 39 38 32 26 21 23 22 20 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 28 28 29 30 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 18 19 23 26 28 27 26 32 38 35 34 22 29 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -2 0 -1 2 1 1 0 0 0 -3 3 -9 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 226 234 235 228 228 239 242 259 265 271 284 300 328 352 11 19 19 SST (C) 27.4 26.7 26.2 26.6 27.1 27.2 26.2 25.6 25.0 22.0 19.9 20.5 20.4 21.3 21.2 21.3 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 120 115 119 125 127 117 112 109 91 83 85 85 89 87 86 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 103 99 102 106 108 100 98 95 81 76 78 78 82 80 77 83 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -56.0 -56.3 -56.7 -57.3 -57.5 -57.8 -58.4 -59.5 -58.6 -58.1 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 47 46 46 49 52 54 62 60 59 56 53 44 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 3 3 2 7 8 6 1 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -34 -36 -31 -29 -26 -45 -73 -86 -85 -83 -95 -123 -106 -62 -37 -35 200 MB DIV 30 4 11 37 12 0 11 7 11 28 -43 -34 -65 -52 -49 2 -27 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 3 2 3 9 18 23 18 26 26 30 30 8 -14 -27 LAND (KM) 1361 1457 1527 1481 1448 1385 1288 1060 794 740 1083 1574 1415 934 467 160 129 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.2 30.8 31.5 32.1 33.4 35.0 37.2 40.2 43.3 44.7 44.3 42.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.1 59.5 58.9 58.2 57.5 56.0 54.0 51.9 49.0 45.0 39.4 33.0 26.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 10 12 17 20 22 22 24 25 25 21 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 4 0 2 5 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 16. 15. 14. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 0. -5. -10. -17. -23. -29. -35. -39. -39. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -5. -7. -9. -11. -5. -4. -6. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. 7. 1. -4. -2. -3. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.5 60.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/27/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.43 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 7.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 6.5% 6.6% 3.4% 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.7% 3.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/27/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/27/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 38 40 40 39 38 32 26 21 23 22 20 19 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 35 37 37 36 35 29 23 18 20 19 17 16 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 30 32 32 31 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 23 23 22 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT