* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/26/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 43 45 44 43 39 33 27 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 43 45 44 43 39 33 27 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 32 31 31 31 30 29 29 27 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 18 18 22 26 27 24 28 29 41 42 47 43 28 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 1 0 1 -2 0 -4 1 -1 -10 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 226 221 228 225 222 228 233 250 262 268 265 287 305 338 7 52 124 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.5 27.3 27.2 26.4 25.9 25.2 21.8 19.0 19.3 19.4 20.0 21.2 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 125 123 118 127 126 118 115 111 91 81 82 82 83 84 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 110 107 105 101 108 107 101 101 99 83 75 76 76 76 75 73 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.8 -56.1 -56.1 -56.6 -57.1 -57.8 -58.8 -58.4 -57.8 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 48 51 51 50 50 50 49 53 56 60 64 65 64 61 53 40 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -46 -37 -41 -35 -34 -30 -41 -64 -59 -85 -81 -132 -149 -148 -165 -150 200 MB DIV 29 20 13 23 31 -15 3 0 22 34 30 -14 -52 -96 -38 -48 -18 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 5 4 7 7 16 30 40 59 49 51 26 10 1 LAND (KM) 1211 1283 1355 1433 1515 1527 1476 1385 1158 836 741 1097 1632 1239 780 587 563 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.8 30.4 31.4 32.6 34.0 36.3 39.7 43.4 45.7 46.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.8 60.3 59.8 59.2 58.7 57.3 55.8 54.1 52.2 49.3 44.9 38.7 31.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 17 23 25 25 25 24 20 13 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 10 5 1 6 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. 16. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -3. -7. -12. -19. -26. -36. -44. -46. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 19. 18. 14. 8. 2. -6. -12. -15. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.3 60.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/26/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 6.7% 6.5% 2.5% 0.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.8% 3.7% 2.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.9% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/26/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/26/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 39 43 45 44 43 39 33 27 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 36 40 42 41 40 36 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 35 37 36 35 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 26 28 27 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT