* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/23/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 30 31 33 35 36 36 37 39 41 42 44 46 50 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 30 31 33 35 36 36 37 39 41 42 44 46 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 32 25 20 17 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 2 1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 273 279 279 269 277 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 150 150 152 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 133 131 131 133 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 54 52 51 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -6 -4 -1 14 11 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 8 2 15 6 -10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 4 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 375 419 466 524 582 699 862 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.8 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.9 66.9 66.9 66.7 66.5 65.9 65.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 89 82 68 60 55 58 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.9 66.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/23/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.47 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 9.6% 6.7% 6.6% 4.8% 7.2% 7.4% 8.8% Logistic: 1.6% 2.8% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 1.2% 1.0% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.2% 2.8% 2.6% 1.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/23/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/23/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 30 30 31 33 35 36 36 37 39 41 42 44 46 50 18HR AGO 30 29 28 29 29 30 32 34 35 35 36 38 40 41 43 45 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 28 30 32 33 33 34 36 38 39 41 43 47 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 23 25 26 26 27 29 31 32 34 36 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT