* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/22/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 29 29 31 34 35 35 36 38 40 41 42 44 47 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 29 29 31 34 35 35 36 38 40 41 42 44 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 34 32 25 21 17 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 5 3 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 260 276 279 272 268 252 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 150 149 151 152 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 133 131 130 131 133 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 55 56 52 54 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -5 -11 -8 0 13 10 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 8 6 1 25 -21 8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 1 4 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 345 399 437 493 548 646 766 930 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.4 25.4 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.7 66.8 66.9 66.8 66.6 66.2 65.7 64.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 90 84 77 66 58 56 53 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.6 66.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/22/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.03 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.49 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 6.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.7% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 2.4% 0.5% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/22/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/22/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 28 29 29 31 34 35 35 36 38 40 41 42 44 47 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 28 28 30 33 34 34 35 37 39 40 41 43 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 26 26 28 31 32 32 33 35 37 38 39 41 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 23 26 27 27 28 30 32 33 34 36 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT