* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/22/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 29 29 30 32 33 33 33 35 37 38 39 41 44 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 29 29 30 32 33 33 33 35 37 38 39 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 26 24 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 33 34 31 25 17 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 2 5 2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 256 260 273 275 274 272 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 150 152 153 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 133 133 131 133 135 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 55 56 52 51 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -14 -10 -12 -10 5 21 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 26 15 9 5 11 -12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 1 2 1 2 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 311 353 382 436 488 605 751 946 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.3 24.2 25.3 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.8 67.1 67.4 67.3 67.2 66.6 65.8 64.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 6 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 93 94 89 73 61 53 54 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 34. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.3 66.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/22/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/22/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/22/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 29 29 29 30 32 33 33 33 35 37 38 39 41 44 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 28 28 29 31 32 32 32 34 36 37 38 40 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 25 26 28 29 29 29 31 33 34 35 37 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 21 23 24 24 24 26 28 29 30 32 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT