* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/22/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 29 29 30 30 30 29 29 31 32 33 33 34 37 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 29 29 30 30 30 29 29 31 32 33 33 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 30 33 34 33 24 19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 0 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 260 256 258 268 276 274 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 151 149 150 151 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 133 132 130 131 133 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 57 58 56 56 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -15 -9 -10 -2 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 14 19 16 0 14 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 4 1 1 4 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 300 361 422 472 521 611 749 906 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.2 24.0 25.2 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.9 66.3 66.6 66.5 66.4 66.0 65.2 63.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 4 6 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 76 83 82 73 68 62 60 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -21. -24. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.2 65.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/22/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/22/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/22/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 29 29 30 30 30 29 29 31 32 33 33 34 37 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 28 28 29 29 29 28 28 30 31 32 32 33 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 25 26 26 26 25 25 27 28 29 29 30 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 20 20 20 19 19 21 22 23 23 24 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT