* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/21/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 24 25 25 28 29 30 32 35 39 41 41 40 40 42 V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 24 25 25 28 29 30 32 35 39 41 41 40 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 22 21 19 17 16 16 17 19 21 23 25 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 28 33 33 34 33 16 17 10 13 13 21 23 30 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -2 -3 0 4 -1 -1 -2 -6 -4 -5 -6 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 250 264 263 258 274 289 289 298 259 256 278 269 259 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.5 28.0 28.0 27.5 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 152 152 151 149 151 155 152 152 143 135 135 128 122 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 139 137 134 130 132 135 131 133 123 114 113 107 102 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.3 -55.2 -55.7 -56.2 -56.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 54 56 58 57 56 55 54 54 51 50 45 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -10 -9 -12 -17 -10 0 20 25 28 36 13 13 4 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -8 3 24 32 0 19 -1 10 -14 1 -1 4 -3 22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -4 -1 3 2 4 2 3 0 1 0 2 -1 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 236 247 289 356 387 447 524 685 792 939 1101 1241 1366 1384 1317 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.7 22.3 23.1 23.8 25.0 25.8 26.9 28.2 29.3 30.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.8 65.6 66.5 66.9 67.3 67.6 67.4 66.5 65.9 65.0 63.8 62.9 62.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 4 5 6 6 8 8 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 68 89 92 89 66 53 51 45 38 24 15 15 11 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -18. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.3 64.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/21/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/21/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/21/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 25 24 25 25 28 29 30 32 35 39 41 41 40 40 42 18HR AGO 30 29 27 26 27 27 30 31 32 34 37 41 43 43 42 42 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 26 26 29 30 31 33 36 40 42 42 41 41 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 24 25 26 28 31 35 37 37 36 36 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT