* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/20/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 41 40 39 36 32 29 29 31 34 37 41 41 42 42 44 V (KT) LAND 45 44 41 40 39 36 32 29 29 31 34 37 41 41 42 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 38 34 31 28 26 26 27 29 33 36 40 42 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 29 30 27 26 34 33 31 18 16 7 16 14 24 26 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 6 5 4 -2 3 -2 2 -2 -3 -5 -5 -5 -2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 229 235 252 258 257 262 256 278 292 271 251 258 251 259 253 245 238 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.5 26.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 150 147 151 146 148 150 148 151 152 144 138 131 117 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 142 139 134 136 129 129 129 128 130 129 122 119 112 101 103 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 -55.8 -56.4 -56.7 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 50 53 56 57 61 60 61 59 57 57 56 56 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 9 8 9 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -12 -6 -7 -9 -14 0 6 26 25 24 25 13 6 -6 -28 200 MB DIV 3 3 -4 15 14 -3 21 9 24 4 18 -8 22 12 33 10 37 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -8 -5 0 -4 2 3 5 3 2 1 2 3 2 2 9 LAND (KM) 491 395 321 302 315 398 421 499 622 746 863 999 1130 1170 1212 1093 923 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.9 21.3 22.3 23.1 24.0 25.1 26.1 27.0 28.1 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.3 62.5 63.6 64.6 65.5 67.1 68.1 68.5 68.3 67.7 67.0 66.4 65.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 10 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 41 39 40 51 67 84 60 45 43 42 38 40 35 29 22 2 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -15. -14. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -5. -6. -9. -13. -16. -16. -14. -11. -8. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.8 61.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/20/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.11 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.16 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 5.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/20/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/20/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 41 40 39 36 32 29 29 31 34 37 41 41 42 42 44 18HR AGO 45 44 41 40 39 36 32 29 29 31 34 37 41 41 42 42 44 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 36 32 29 29 31 34 37 41 41 42 42 44 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 31 27 24 24 26 29 32 36 36 37 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT