* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/20/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 39 37 33 29 27 28 31 35 37 37 37 37 40 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 39 37 33 29 27 28 31 35 37 37 37 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 38 34 31 28 26 26 26 29 31 33 34 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 28 30 29 29 28 31 21 16 13 15 21 29 29 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 6 4 6 4 0 0 2 0 0 -2 0 -3 -2 0 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 238 234 241 254 261 253 260 256 279 254 269 245 273 266 270 273 265 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 152 152 150 151 148 146 149 148 150 150 146 142 135 126 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 143 141 140 138 131 128 129 128 129 129 124 121 116 107 98 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.7 -55.9 -56.4 -56.7 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 52 52 50 50 50 54 58 62 61 62 60 59 55 56 56 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -8 -10 -16 -9 -13 -16 -10 -5 3 14 10 -8 -25 -20 15 28 200 MB DIV 9 11 -2 1 12 11 13 21 13 2 1 6 12 16 26 65 47 700-850 TADV -12 -1 -3 -6 -5 -2 -1 1 1 1 2 0 2 0 0 4 18 LAND (KM) 579 461 358 310 290 378 392 460 569 684 802 947 1094 1072 1127 1078 917 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.9 22.7 23.6 24.7 25.7 26.6 27.8 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.3 61.5 62.8 63.7 64.7 66.7 67.9 68.4 68.7 68.4 67.6 67.0 66.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 11 9 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 42 41 39 41 52 85 72 50 44 47 40 38 35 37 30 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 21. 20. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -14. -15. -16. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -18. -17. -14. -10. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.3 60.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/20/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 10.0% 9.8% 5.7% 3.6% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.5% 3.4% 2.0% 1.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/20/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/20/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 42 41 39 37 33 29 27 28 31 35 37 37 37 37 40 18HR AGO 45 44 42 41 39 37 33 29 27 28 31 35 37 37 37 37 40 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 36 32 28 26 27 30 34 36 36 36 36 39 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 31 27 23 21 22 25 29 31 31 31 31 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT