* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/20/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 43 42 40 38 35 33 32 33 35 39 42 44 44 46 46 V (KT) LAND 45 45 43 42 40 38 35 33 32 33 35 39 42 44 44 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 43 41 37 33 31 29 28 28 30 33 36 38 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 25 23 27 30 24 30 29 27 13 16 11 18 20 28 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 5 4 4 3 1 2 -4 2 0 -2 -3 -3 -5 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 227 241 241 242 257 264 259 251 268 273 266 253 268 261 266 258 250 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 154 155 157 157 156 158 153 150 146 140 136 132 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 146 145 144 142 142 137 135 136 132 129 125 119 116 113 103 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.9 -56.1 -56.5 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 50 52 53 53 52 55 57 60 65 63 60 54 48 50 49 48 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 -10 -14 -19 -13 -21 -15 -7 -12 -4 0 1 2 -25 7 5 200 MB DIV -7 1 14 -3 4 24 -11 4 9 30 5 0 -15 13 -4 53 21 700-850 TADV -3 -10 -3 -3 -5 1 -4 3 4 5 2 0 -1 -1 4 7 21 LAND (KM) 719 600 488 400 336 339 428 475 537 636 754 896 1041 1111 1111 1122 973 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.5 24.3 25.2 26.2 27.4 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.9 60.1 61.3 62.4 63.5 65.4 66.9 67.8 68.3 68.2 67.8 67.3 66.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 9 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 47 44 44 41 43 70 78 60 49 48 45 37 33 37 28 14 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -10. -6. -3. -1. -1. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.9 58.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/20/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 5.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.2% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/20/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/20/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 43 42 40 38 35 33 32 33 35 39 42 44 44 46 46 18HR AGO 45 44 42 41 39 37 34 32 31 32 34 38 41 43 43 45 45 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 36 33 31 30 31 33 37 40 42 42 44 44 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 31 28 26 25 26 28 32 35 37 37 39 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT