* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/20/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 36 35 32 32 29 28 28 29 32 35 38 40 42 43 V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 36 35 32 32 29 28 28 29 32 35 38 40 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 36 34 30 27 25 23 22 21 21 22 23 26 28 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 25 23 27 26 26 30 33 27 25 19 17 17 20 23 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 9 4 4 3 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 -5 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 206 221 236 231 234 259 249 258 252 277 260 268 221 248 245 252 233 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 154 156 154 153 156 157 158 156 152 151 148 140 137 133 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 146 147 145 141 140 140 139 134 129 128 127 121 116 110 105 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -55.1 -55.1 -55.5 -55.6 -56.0 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 53 53 54 58 60 59 59 61 58 57 56 54 54 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -6 -9 -10 -15 -8 -14 -6 -2 13 25 34 39 31 18 23 58 200 MB DIV 24 0 5 14 -2 14 4 14 9 30 36 16 20 -1 13 34 9 700-850 TADV -6 -11 -11 -2 -3 -4 -5 -1 0 1 1 0 -2 0 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 802 678 560 455 364 325 422 482 579 681 770 867 982 1145 1153 1165 1118 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 21.2 22.3 23.3 24.6 25.6 26.3 27.1 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.1 59.3 60.5 61.6 62.8 64.8 66.2 67.3 68.0 68.1 67.6 67.2 66.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 7 7 6 5 4 5 6 9 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 54 44 44 43 41 58 76 64 48 48 44 38 38 33 29 33 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -20. -20. -21. -21. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -8. -5. -2. 0. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.5 58.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/20/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.07 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.3% 4.3% 3.5% 1.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.3% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.6% 2.3% 0.4% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/20/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/20/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 37 36 35 32 32 29 28 28 29 32 35 38 40 42 43 18HR AGO 40 39 37 36 35 32 32 29 28 28 29 32 35 38 40 42 43 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 31 31 28 27 27 28 31 34 37 39 41 42 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 26 26 23 22 22 23 26 29 32 34 36 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT