* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/19/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 37 36 33 32 30 28 26 25 25 26 28 30 34 37 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 37 36 33 32 30 28 26 25 25 26 28 30 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 40 39 37 33 29 26 24 23 21 20 19 18 19 22 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 27 26 27 30 24 31 35 38 31 34 22 16 11 13 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 8 9 4 4 1 0 0 -1 2 0 -1 0 -6 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 199 204 216 226 222 250 255 252 251 267 270 267 271 264 263 262 245 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.5 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 154 156 154 155 155 157 157 155 155 150 142 142 135 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 146 146 147 143 141 138 136 134 132 132 128 119 118 112 109 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 53 54 54 55 54 57 60 60 62 63 65 64 62 60 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 0 -8 -14 -16 -8 -2 3 22 27 43 44 41 45 32 46 200 MB DIV 25 30 13 0 -2 4 21 19 23 10 41 20 38 5 42 9 26 700-850 TADV 1 -5 -7 -8 -2 -7 0 -1 0 -1 1 0 5 1 -3 1 -6 LAND (KM) 897 776 659 554 460 363 414 539 631 712 763 867 1020 1156 1170 1153 1169 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.0 21.1 22.2 23.5 24.7 25.6 26.1 27.0 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.2 58.4 59.5 60.6 61.7 63.9 65.5 66.6 67.0 67.2 67.2 66.9 66.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 4 4 5 7 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 64 50 44 45 43 45 73 63 53 49 46 40 40 37 38 29 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 816 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 16. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -19. -23. -25. -26. -26. -26. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -12. -10. -6. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.2 57.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/19/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 9.3% 6.3% 6.1% 4.2% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.7% 2.3% 2.3% 1.5% 2.6% 0.3% 0.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/19/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/19/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 37 36 33 32 30 28 26 25 25 26 28 30 34 37 18HR AGO 40 39 38 36 35 32 31 29 27 25 24 24 25 27 29 33 36 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 30 29 27 25 23 22 22 23 25 27 31 34 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 26 25 23 21 19 18 18 19 21 23 27 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT