* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/19/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 43 42 40 35 33 31 26 24 22 21 22 24 28 32 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 43 42 40 35 33 31 26 24 22 21 22 24 28 32 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 44 43 42 39 35 32 30 28 26 24 22 21 20 21 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 20 23 24 30 27 27 33 40 39 36 39 28 21 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 5 6 10 8 3 4 2 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -1 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 209 201 199 204 207 216 249 244 256 254 259 262 264 259 266 246 237 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 149 152 154 156 153 154 157 153 153 154 154 152 152 147 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 142 144 146 146 142 139 136 129 129 134 132 125 124 123 113 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.5 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 50 52 54 57 57 57 58 58 57 58 57 57 55 50 48 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 12 0 2 -1 -5 -12 -5 -5 11 25 30 47 52 62 37 -2 -6 200 MB DIV 13 26 53 4 -10 7 25 28 6 -7 17 18 44 17 11 -14 -10 700-850 TADV 7 3 -5 -3 -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 923 931 845 733 626 453 422 536 726 791 803 889 1111 1217 1250 1278 1265 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.7 21.8 23.3 25.0 25.6 25.8 26.6 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.8 56.7 57.7 58.8 59.9 62.2 64.0 65.5 65.3 65.4 65.7 65.5 64.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 2 3 7 7 3 3 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 58 59 50 47 40 47 66 62 52 49 42 37 38 35 30 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -21. -24. -27. -29. -30. -30. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 2. -0. -5. -7. -9. -14. -16. -18. -19. -18. -16. -12. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.4 55.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/19/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 16.9% 10.4% 9.6% 6.9% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 3.6% 2.3% 2.9% 0.7% 2.7% 1.0% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 7.5% 4.6% 4.2% 2.5% 4.1% 0.4% 0.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/19/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/19/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 43 42 40 35 33 31 26 24 22 21 22 24 28 32 18HR AGO 40 39 41 41 40 38 33 31 29 24 22 20 19 20 22 26 30 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 33 28 26 24 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT