* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162021 09/19/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 34 35 33 34 33 33 32 34 33 34 36 39 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 34 35 33 34 33 33 32 34 33 34 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 30 27 24 22 21 20 19 18 17 17 17 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 12 16 24 28 28 25 27 30 32 30 29 28 20 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 7 2 4 6 3 6 0 1 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 187 192 198 188 194 213 219 246 236 242 236 260 254 268 256 280 272 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.4 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 143 145 149 152 158 154 154 156 154 158 149 147 146 144 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 139 141 144 145 150 143 138 136 135 139 130 124 121 120 114 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.9 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -55.6 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 53 52 50 52 55 57 58 57 58 60 59 60 61 62 59 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 29 17 8 2 3 -11 -12 -6 0 3 3 4 16 1 5 -16 -23 200 MB DIV 85 72 34 29 31 -6 1 24 13 28 29 14 36 5 5 -8 13 700-850 TADV -3 1 4 2 -7 -9 -6 -9 -4 -2 0 0 0 3 -1 4 1 LAND (KM) 1091 1026 976 943 886 663 451 349 423 516 581 704 903 1054 1156 1235 1256 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.4 20.2 21.2 22.3 23.2 24.0 25.2 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.5 53.6 54.8 56.0 57.3 59.5 61.9 64.3 65.7 66.5 66.7 66.5 65.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 7 5 5 8 8 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 47 32 33 45 63 47 43 45 65 62 55 54 39 37 38 35 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. -24. -25. -25. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 4. 3. 4. 6. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.1 52.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 SIXTEEN 09/19/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 10.5% 7.1% 6.3% 4.5% 7.2% 6.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 4.1% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1.8% 2.3% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.3% 3.2% 2.6% 1.7% 3.1% 3.2% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 SIXTEEN 09/19/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 SIXTEEN 09/19/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 35 34 35 33 34 33 33 32 34 33 34 36 39 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 32 33 31 32 31 31 30 32 31 32 34 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 27 28 26 27 26 26 25 27 26 27 29 32 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 20 21 19 20 19 19 18 20 19 20 22 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT