* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/24/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 33 29 23 19 17 17 17 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 33 29 23 19 17 17 17 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 29 28 28 30 32 33 36 38 39 38 35 32 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 35 43 38 21 21 24 18 18 21 20 29 31 41 42 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 5 -2 0 0 -2 -4 0 -5 -4 -4 -4 -2 -3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 31 16 8 6 8 320 311 311 326 325 338 344 1 12 12 14 21 SST (C) 22.0 22.2 22.1 22.6 23.2 24.0 25.2 25.5 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 84 86 87 91 95 99 107 109 117 120 121 123 124 125 127 128 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 74 76 79 82 85 92 93 98 99 99 101 102 103 105 106 112 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.7 -56.1 -56.2 -56.1 -55.8 -56.0 -56.3 -56.6 -56.9 -57.1 -57.0 -56.9 -56.4 -56.3 -55.6 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 40 43 43 40 37 35 34 33 32 28 29 30 34 36 40 41 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 16 14 12 10 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 90 89 80 65 47 52 71 64 36 20 -5 -23 -49 -67 -87 -96 200 MB DIV 19 32 10 -7 -26 -23 -22 -36 -38 -23 -25 -22 -32 -37 -42 -40 -47 700-850 TADV 4 2 -1 -6 -9 -23 -18 -20 -6 -4 0 -1 1 0 2 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 961 1014 1107 1229 1367 1635 1803 1904 2005 2073 2100 2095 2066 2044 2029 2032 2077 LAT (DEG N) 44.2 44.0 43.4 42.4 41.1 38.6 36.2 34.2 32.7 31.8 31.3 31.1 31.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.3 40.7 39.8 38.8 37.9 36.4 36.6 37.7 38.3 38.6 39.0 39.5 40.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 11 13 15 12 12 9 6 4 2 3 3 3 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 5 6 6 8 7 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -26. -31. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -23. -26. -29. -30. -30. -29. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -12. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17. -18. -21. -22. -25. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 44.2 41.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/24/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/24/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/24/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 33 29 23 19 17 17 17 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 32 28 22 18 16 16 16 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 29 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT