* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/24/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 33 30 24 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 33 30 24 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 30 28 28 30 32 35 37 40 41 40 38 36 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 26 26 32 37 20 16 20 25 17 17 24 32 34 33 31 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 5 -2 2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -4 -9 -5 -7 -4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 39 30 17 9 3 357 296 290 311 315 313 345 354 354 349 352 345 SST (C) 22.0 22.2 21.8 21.1 22.4 23.2 24.0 24.6 25.1 25.1 25.4 26.0 26.5 26.7 26.3 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 84 85 84 83 89 94 97 101 105 104 106 111 116 119 115 108 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 72 72 73 78 81 83 86 88 87 88 91 96 98 96 91 91 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -55.0 -55.9 -56.1 -56.2 -56.2 -56.0 -56.3 -56.5 -56.9 -57.0 -57.2 -56.8 -56.7 -56.5 -56.0 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 37 43 45 44 42 38 36 38 36 33 30 33 37 42 47 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 15 14 11 9 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 75 100 83 89 39 24 22 23 17 2 -7 -30 -24 -25 -42 -74 200 MB DIV -6 31 41 2 -21 -21 -40 -30 -21 -33 -32 -23 -31 -18 0 -26 -15 700-850 TADV 4 1 1 0 -11 -36 -29 -16 -14 -6 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 961 1006 1066 1154 1273 1541 1782 1865 1868 1909 1916 1896 1851 1779 1672 1505 1339 LAT (DEG N) 44.2 44.2 44.0 43.5 42.7 40.7 38.8 37.2 36.1 34.9 34.2 33.9 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.3 40.7 40.0 39.1 38.0 35.8 34.1 34.5 35.7 36.6 37.5 38.3 39.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 10 12 13 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -25. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -20. -25. -28. -31. -32. -32. -31. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -11. -17. -20. -20. -20. -19. -21. -25. -27. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 44.2 41.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/24/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.09 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.08 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 3.4% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/24/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/24/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 33 33 30 24 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 32 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT