* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/23/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 32 26 19 16 16 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 32 26 19 16 16 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 34 34 33 30 29 29 31 34 36 39 40 40 38 36 Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 20 27 27 34 38 23 22 24 18 20 25 24 36 35 43 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -1 0 3 0 -1 -2 -4 0 -4 -7 -4 -8 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 60 38 37 21 15 11 327 311 305 316 321 330 338 353 7 10 11 SST (C) 22.5 22.5 22.5 23.2 23.2 23.2 24.1 25.3 25.4 26.2 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 85 86 88 93 93 94 99 108 108 114 117 118 121 124 127 128 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 72 74 79 80 82 85 92 91 95 96 98 100 103 107 108 107 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.9 -55.6 -55.8 -56.0 -55.9 -56.0 -56.4 -57.0 -57.1 -57.4 -57.1 -57.1 -56.5 -56.3 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 3.3 2.6 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 35 36 39 43 42 39 37 36 34 32 30 31 33 39 41 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 18 16 13 11 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 64 75 91 87 71 55 56 73 70 34 15 -17 -25 -34 -37 -60 200 MB DIV 5 -20 7 8 -5 -25 -22 -25 -27 -27 -17 -16 -37 -12 -15 -37 -31 700-850 TADV 1 5 5 0 3 -5 -16 -14 -17 -5 -3 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 914 926 979 1069 1176 1431 1685 1854 1956 2044 2106 2122 2120 2090 2026 1933 1814 LAT (DEG N) 43.9 43.8 43.6 43.1 42.3 40.3 38.0 35.8 34.0 32.7 31.9 31.5 31.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.1 42.0 41.4 40.5 39.6 37.7 36.3 36.3 37.1 37.6 37.8 38.2 38.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 6 9 11 13 11 11 8 6 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 5 7 7 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -2. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -26. -31. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -20. -24. -28. -31. -34. -34. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. -0. -3. -9. -16. -19. -19. -19. -19. -19. -23. -25. -28. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 43.9 42.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/23/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.10 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 7.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/23/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/23/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 35 32 26 19 16 16 16 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 31 25 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT