* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/23/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 41 37 30 23 19 19 20 22 21 21 22 24 26 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 41 37 30 23 19 19 20 22 21 21 22 24 26 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 42 41 38 35 35 37 39 41 44 48 52 57 60 Storm Type EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 21 27 30 39 25 28 27 26 20 17 11 13 18 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -1 -1 0 3 -3 -1 0 -2 -3 -5 -4 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 90 68 44 36 22 7 360 317 297 296 282 290 303 327 337 351 355 SST (C) 22.3 22.2 22.3 22.5 23.3 23.4 24.4 25.4 25.7 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 85 82 85 88 93 95 102 110 111 116 113 111 112 116 121 127 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 69 72 75 79 82 88 95 96 98 95 93 94 99 105 111 114 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.9 -55.7 -55.9 -55.8 -55.4 -55.8 -56.4 -56.9 -57.3 -57.7 -57.4 -57.0 -56.5 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 2.6 3.1 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 39 36 36 41 45 41 39 34 34 33 34 34 34 34 38 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 18 17 14 11 8 6 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 68 73 90 97 68 87 99 83 51 9 -14 -23 -38 -45 -69 200 MB DIV 2 -2 -17 6 33 -29 -8 -27 -21 -14 -18 -28 -4 -22 -22 -27 -34 700-850 TADV 0 2 5 3 -1 -6 -16 -14 -20 -10 -6 -3 -4 -1 -2 0 4 LAND (KM) 879 864 891 953 1048 1276 1547 1796 2009 2181 2129 2041 2006 2063 2217 2307 2215 LAT (DEG N) 44.2 44.2 44.1 43.7 43.1 41.2 38.7 35.9 33.4 31.8 31.0 30.4 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.4 42.6 42.3 41.7 40.8 39.1 37.6 37.1 37.1 36.6 35.8 35.1 35.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 4 7 9 13 14 13 11 7 5 3 3 6 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 5 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -19. -24. -26. -29. -32. -34. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -17. -21. -21. -20. -18. -19. -19. -18. -16. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 44.2 42.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/23/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 6.4% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/23/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/23/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 41 41 37 30 23 19 19 20 22 21 21 22 24 26 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 40 36 29 22 18 18 19 21 20 20 21 23 25 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 32 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT