* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/23/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 41 38 30 22 19 18 18 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 41 38 30 22 19 18 18 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 42 41 39 35 34 36 38 40 43 45 46 46 45 Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 21 29 35 40 22 25 28 22 18 22 28 35 33 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -5 0 3 -1 0 -2 -4 -1 -4 -6 -7 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 106 72 53 31 32 11 5 332 310 288 302 295 323 333 350 351 348 SST (C) 22.3 22.3 22.0 21.9 22.3 22.1 23.0 24.2 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.8 26.8 27.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 87 85 83 83 86 88 93 100 108 108 111 114 115 120 121 127 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 74 72 69 70 73 76 81 87 92 92 93 94 95 99 102 109 113 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -55.0 -56.1 -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 -56.4 -57.2 -57.6 -57.9 -57.3 -56.9 -56.3 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.7 3.2 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 41 40 37 38 43 44 38 35 33 33 33 33 36 37 41 43 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 20 18 15 12 9 7 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 41 42 59 69 77 66 43 54 69 56 13 0 -21 -30 -32 -41 200 MB DIV 8 -5 -15 -7 10 19 -30 -22 -10 -18 -22 -18 -17 -33 -55 -41 -32 700-850 TADV -3 1 6 7 4 -1 -6 -21 -16 -15 -6 -6 0 -5 -3 -10 -4 LAND (KM) 931 878 860 880 935 1114 1360 1615 1786 1895 1991 2053 2064 2023 1975 1925 1862 LAT (DEG N) 44.2 44.6 44.9 45.0 44.7 43.4 41.1 38.5 36.1 34.3 33.1 32.3 31.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.7 42.2 42.3 42.0 41.4 39.7 38.0 36.8 37.0 37.7 37.9 38.1 38.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 2 3 6 12 13 13 11 8 5 3 4 5 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 7 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 2. -2. -7. -10. -14. -16. -19. -23. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -18. -24. -27. -30. -32. -34. -34. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -10. -18. -21. -22. -22. -20. -21. -25. -27. -27. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 44.2 41.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/23/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 6.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/23/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/23/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 41 41 38 30 22 19 18 18 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 39 36 28 20 17 16 16 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 33 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT