* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/23/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 40 37 30 22 18 19 18 20 20 18 19 20 21 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 40 37 30 22 18 19 18 20 20 18 19 20 21 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 39 39 39 38 36 35 36 39 41 43 45 47 48 49 Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 9 19 30 37 22 22 20 25 20 17 17 20 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -6 -6 -4 0 -3 1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -4 -5 -3 -7 1 SHEAR DIR 125 107 75 53 28 12 1 4 322 299 301 300 309 318 335 358 6 SST (C) 22.2 22.1 21.3 21.1 21.0 21.7 22.0 23.1 24.4 25.6 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 87 86 81 79 79 85 88 94 101 110 114 115 115 115 118 120 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 75 74 70 67 67 74 77 81 87 94 96 96 95 95 97 101 105 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -55.8 -56.3 -56.3 -55.9 -56.3 -56.6 -57.2 -57.5 -57.7 -57.4 -57.1 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 1.7 2.7 3.3 2.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 5 5 7 700-500 MB RH 41 41 41 38 42 47 42 36 34 32 31 31 30 32 34 35 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 20 20 15 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 35 30 36 53 85 63 42 48 61 54 23 -1 -16 -28 -39 -51 200 MB DIV 17 13 1 1 24 19 -24 -7 -52 -7 -31 -22 -24 -13 -31 -57 -25 700-850 TADV -6 -2 4 8 6 -4 -17 -35 -24 -24 -14 -11 -5 -4 -1 -3 1 LAND (KM) 972 898 849 823 834 961 1175 1413 1630 1746 1853 1971 2054 2101 2090 2052 1990 LAT (DEG N) 44.1 44.9 45.4 45.7 45.8 45.0 43.2 40.8 38.2 35.9 34.2 32.9 32.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.2 41.8 42.2 42.4 42.2 40.9 39.0 37.5 36.9 37.9 38.6 38.6 38.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 5 2 2 9 13 13 13 11 8 6 3 3 3 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -0. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -23. -27. -31. -32. -34. -34. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 0. -3. -10. -18. -22. -21. -22. -20. -20. -22. -21. -20. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 44.1 41.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/23/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 7.6% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.9% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/23/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/23/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 40 40 37 30 22 18 19 18 20 20 18 19 20 21 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 39 36 29 21 17 18 17 19 19 17 18 19 20 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 33 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT