* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/22/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 40 38 30 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 40 38 30 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 39 39 39 38 36 35 36 37 38 38 38 38 34 36 Storm Type SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 13 12 25 27 27 15 34 40 43 48 45 46 45 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 0 4 -2 5 3 -3 -1 -2 0 6 11 15 SHEAR DIR 162 127 95 73 40 15 356 357 268 240 243 250 254 254 235 208 193 SST (C) 22.8 22.3 21.7 20.9 20.5 20.1 19.2 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.4 21.1 20.4 19.5 17.3 13.9 10.3 POT. INT. (KT) 91 88 85 80 78 77 77 84 86 87 86 86 84 82 78 74 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 78 76 73 70 68 67 69 74 77 79 77 77 77 76 74 71 69 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -55.5 -56.3 -56.4 -55.5 -56.5 -58.3 -58.3 -58.0 -57.8 -56.6 -56.7 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.6 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 42 43 42 39 46 45 42 39 43 41 46 45 47 55 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 23 22 21 18 14 11 10 7 5 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 27 33 21 29 66 63 40 35 -20 -68 -102 -91 -45 48 121 60 200 MB DIV -1 20 12 6 30 25 4 -21 -30 14 5 32 28 49 84 67 -57 700-850 TADV -2 -5 0 2 13 1 -26 -48 -92 -73 -9 9 15 46 64 96 56 LAND (KM) 1067 991 913 860 821 838 1019 1284 1630 1516 1128 777 341 169 45 59 407 LAT (DEG N) 43.3 44.2 45.1 45.7 46.2 46.4 45.6 44.3 43.2 42.2 41.3 41.7 43.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.4 40.9 41.5 41.9 42.2 41.9 39.8 36.9 32.9 27.6 22.6 18.4 13.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 6 4 5 11 13 18 21 16 18 22 25 30 33 32 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. 2. 0. -4. -11. -17. -25. -34. -41. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 19. 19. 17. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -19. -23. -28. -33. -35. -36. -37. -37. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -10. -19. -23. -27. -31. -33. -39. -49. -55. -60. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 43.3 40.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/22/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 6.8% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/22/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/22/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 39 39 40 38 30 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 40 38 30 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 35 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT