* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/22/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 44 43 36 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 44 43 36 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 45 43 41 39 38 36 34 33 33 35 38 N/A Storm Type EXTP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 10 12 12 18 28 32 19 39 44 41 42 49 47 26 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -5 -6 -3 4 -2 9 19 22 22 26 27 17 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 185 157 121 97 71 22 358 341 304 226 214 175 160 158 134 109 N/A SST (C) 23.5 22.7 22.4 21.6 20.8 19.3 19.8 19.5 19.9 19.0 17.5 14.7 11.3 8.7 11.2 10.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 90 89 84 81 72 78 79 83 84 80 74 71 69 66 64 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 78 76 73 70 63 69 71 76 79 76 71 69 68 63 62 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.4 -54.2 -55.6 -56.1 -55.4 -54.5 -53.4 -52.0 -51.2 -50.9 -47.1 -46.2 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.8 1.8 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 44 45 44 43 48 45 41 47 54 64 75 83 70 75 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 23 22 21 20 17 15 12 10 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 43 22 30 16 46 83 61 64 35 80 139 202 208 156 144 N/A 200 MB DIV 36 -5 16 24 8 66 10 -9 0 26 12 42 -11 -163 -160 -141 N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -2 -5 0 3 7 -1 -46 -119 -110 -135 -104 -55 44 36 -36 N/A LAND (KM) 1160 1094 1009 935 864 803 900 1164 1545 1235 434 20 292 931 1355 1223 N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.2 43.2 44.3 45.1 45.8 46.6 46.3 45.5 45.1 46.2 49.7 54.9 60.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.9 40.1 40.6 41.2 41.8 42.3 41.1 37.9 33.0 24.7 15.2 8.7 7.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 7 1 9 14 23 35 35 30 31 27 12 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -12. -19. -26. -36. -45. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. -31. -35. -37. -38. -37. -35. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -9. -17. -25. -33. -43. -50. -60. -75. -83. -85. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 42.2 39.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/22/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 9.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.7% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/22/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/22/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 45 44 43 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 43 42 35 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 39 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT