* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/22/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 46 46 45 39 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 46 46 45 39 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 45 45 43 42 41 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 14 13 10 11 10 23 30 46 61 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -3 -2 -3 -7 7 17 25 17 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 173 155 114 92 30 332 262 226 238 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 22.9 21.6 20.8 19.5 17.8 16.2 14.0 14.4 10.5 8.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 92 86 83 78 72 72 76 77 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 79 76 74 70 66 67 73 74 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -55.5 -55.2 -53.7 -53.2 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 45 45 45 45 47 51 44 61 68 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 26 24 24 22 19 17 16 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 77 32 17 13 14 23 30 94 96 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 43 1 8 15 41 22 26 59 19 -334 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 0 -2 -2 2 1 -17 -118 -75 40 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1221 1205 1143 1053 966 851 945 1485 660 450 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.3 42.3 43.6 44.9 46.1 47.9 49.4 51.6 56.3 62.4 67.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.8 39.2 39.2 39.7 40.3 41.4 40.1 32.7 19.5 7.2 -6.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 12 8 15 38 47 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 393 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. -2. -9. -19. -25. -31. -39. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 0. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. 7. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -20. -26. -27. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -6. -15. -24. -33. -46. -49. -55. -65. -70. -72. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 41.3 39.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/22/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 7.7% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/22/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/22/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 46 46 45 39 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 44 44 43 37 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 39 33 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 34 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT