* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/21/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 48 48 47 42 36 30 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 48 48 47 42 36 30 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 43 43 41 40 40 40 40 40 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 32 27 16 20 19 18 26 30 28 12 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 -2 -4 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 223 207 166 143 90 58 34 16 357 262 286 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.3 23.7 23.2 22.4 21.8 21.5 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.8 24.9 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 100 96 94 89 84 82 97 100 102 104 103 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 85 82 82 76 71 70 81 85 88 90 87 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -54.1 -54.7 -55.4 -55.8 -56.0 -55.7 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.5 1.8 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 39 45 48 48 46 40 47 49 52 50 53 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 25 24 24 21 19 17 16 13 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 106 100 72 33 40 37 57 74 96 106 97 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 7 11 19 10 25 6 5 21 -50 -13 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -27 -15 0 -8 -5 -3 2 5 5 -11 -17 -25 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1207 1223 1248 1139 1044 849 819 936 1138 1430 1757 1982 2070 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 14 11 5 4 9 12 14 12 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 17 CX,CY: 12/-11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -17. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -16. -22. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 3. 2. -3. -9. -15. -20. -23. -26. -28. -33. -36. -38. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.7 41.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/21/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.08 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 5.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/21/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/21/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 48 48 47 42 36 30 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 47 46 41 35 29 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 43 42 37 31 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 34 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT