* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/21/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 51 52 48 40 34 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 51 52 48 40 34 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 49 48 46 42 40 39 40 41 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 43 45 38 28 15 17 23 21 31 38 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 -7 8 15 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 226 230 224 218 134 56 24 333 267 254 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.4 25.3 24.7 24.1 22.2 18.9 17.9 16.0 14.6 15.3 10.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 110 108 103 100 90 77 72 73 77 78 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 93 92 88 86 80 70 66 68 74 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -55.6 -55.6 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 34 36 41 45 49 49 48 52 43 54 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 22 25 25 23 20 19 18 19 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 99 101 118 114 56 27 8 2 13 61 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 66 12 7 22 20 15 24 9 35 35 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -43 -37 -13 2 13 0 -5 6 -27 -73 -28 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 841 1003 1151 1267 1327 1232 1012 880 1011 1356 353 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.6 40.6 39.8 39.5 40.0 43.1 46.3 48.4 49.9 51.8 54.6 58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.3 43.9 42.5 41.0 39.5 38.3 39.6 41.0 39.2 30.1 15.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 12 13 18 14 8 18 41 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -17. -20. -23. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -16. -25. -33. -40. -44. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. 0. 1. -1. -5. -8. -11. -11. -13. -17. -20. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 2. -2. -10. -16. -25. -30. -37. -49. -60. -66. -70. -73. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 41.6 45.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/21/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/21/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/21/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 49 51 52 48 40 34 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 51 52 48 40 34 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 45 37 31 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 37 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT