* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/21/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 47 48 46 37 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 47 48 46 37 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 47 46 44 40 39 39 39 39 39 37 36 35 35 35 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 49 45 43 46 37 17 16 18 19 28 31 28 27 24 22 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -6 -5 2 -2 -5 -4 0 2 5 2 0 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 208 214 219 222 214 166 106 60 19 346 326 318 303 290 287 284 288 SST (C) 22.3 24.4 24.2 24.1 24.1 22.9 20.1 18.1 15.7 15.5 19.7 22.7 24.1 25.2 25.7 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 89 102 100 99 98 92 81 74 67 67 78 91 100 107 109 110 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 78 87 85 84 82 80 72 67 62 62 70 79 86 90 88 89 91 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -55.5 -55.9 -56.4 -57.4 -57.8 -57.7 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.6 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 37 35 34 36 41 46 49 46 49 52 45 38 34 32 33 35 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 24 26 27 22 20 20 19 19 17 13 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 112 102 95 99 108 96 46 17 32 50 26 27 20 9 -10 -36 -34 200 MB DIV 41 44 83 31 21 12 8 -21 41 -4 -51 -54 -44 -25 -20 6 -24 700-850 TADV -44 -48 -44 -21 6 9 -9 1 2 -5 -32 -38 -21 -12 -2 0 8 LAND (KM) 649 792 944 1078 1185 1225 1063 868 739 732 858 1017 1153 1241 1251 1199 1069 LAT (DEG N) 43.2 42.6 41.9 41.2 40.9 42.2 45.0 47.1 48.1 47.9 46.5 44.3 41.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.5 44.9 43.3 42.0 40.7 39.0 39.5 41.3 42.9 43.0 41.6 40.5 40.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 11 9 12 14 10 4 5 11 13 14 10 5 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -24. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -17. -22. -25. -30. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -1. -0. -6. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -25. -28. -30. -31. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -2. -4. -13. -21. -27. -34. -41. -48. -56. -62. -64. -65. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 43.2 46.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/21/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/21/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/21/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 47 47 48 46 37 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 47 47 48 46 37 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 47 45 36 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 39 30 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT