* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/18/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 43 46 48 45 37 28 26 33 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 43 46 48 45 37 28 26 33 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 41 40 36 31 28 29 33 37 39 40 40 39 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 36 36 46 48 43 42 34 27 2 8 14 10 12 19 28 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 3 6 -4 -3 -3 0 1 -2 -1 0 -3 -4 -7 0 SHEAR DIR 243 250 239 234 222 216 215 236 266 173 111 93 68 29 355 314 300 SST (C) 27.1 25.1 24.5 24.9 22.6 19.6 21.4 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.9 22.4 17.8 18.4 19.6 21.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 109 104 107 91 79 84 102 100 98 101 86 70 71 73 81 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 96 91 92 80 71 74 83 80 78 81 73 64 64 65 70 81 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -54.6 -56.0 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.9 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 2.3 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.1 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 60 57 37 33 23 22 35 42 44 43 47 44 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 26 27 31 28 25 21 22 27 26 22 21 19 17 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 17 44 89 102 115 131 118 84 47 60 62 53 52 48 5 -2 -19 200 MB DIV 82 79 113 88 31 54 23 4 22 9 8 38 20 -2 -5 0 -27 700-850 TADV 18 21 9 7 -12 -21 -45 -53 -36 -10 3 0 -2 7 0 11 11 LAND (KM) 466 447 444 446 444 472 518 655 733 751 715 643 562 535 552 613 724 LAT (DEG N) 38.7 39.7 40.6 41.3 42.0 42.5 42.2 41.4 41.0 40.9 41.1 41.8 42.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.1 64.0 61.8 59.8 57.9 54.6 51.4 49.5 48.5 48.3 48.7 48.8 48.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 18 16 14 12 10 6 2 0 3 5 4 2 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. -5. -13. -19. -20. -22. -23. -25. -28. -29. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 1. -4. -4. 1. -1. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 6. 8. 5. -3. -12. -14. -7. -8. -14. -21. -29. -37. -46. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 38.7 66.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/18/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/18/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/18/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 43 46 48 45 37 28 26 33 32 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 47 44 36 27 25 32 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 38 30 21 19 26 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT